With the onset of autumn and the first atlantic crossings, the likelihood of tropical storms decreases, but the 2024 hurricane season still seems far from over. The record warm Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico temperatures increase the chance of the birth of further tropical storms and any disturbance that does form will have plenty of fuel to draw from the ocean.

This is the case of the current hurricane Rafael, that after blasting across western Cuba as a Cat 3 storm on wednesday oct 6, emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as one of just three November Cat2 hurricanes. Rafael’s ascension to major hurricane status put this event in a tie with 1985’s Kate as the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico in November, furthermore gave the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season 17 storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, when an average season has 14 storms, 7 hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

By November, conditions for hurricane development should become increasingly unfavourable as several atmospheric factors reduce the risk of storms as fall progresses:

– the progressive cooling of sea temperatures;

– the increase of wind shear at higher levels, that disrupts storm development;

– the shifting of weather fronts, that often push storms away from the Florida Peninsula more in the western part of the tropical Atlantic, including the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico like.

But just as we’ve seen with Rafael, hurricane season doesn’t always play by the rule book. As I am writing, The National Hurricane Center gives a 40% chance of development of a Caribbean system into a tropical storm in the next seven days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of a tropical depression, which, if it were to reach storm strength, could be named Tropical Storm Sara.

Beryl 8 july 2024 (credit NOAA)

Alessandro Casarino – Navimeteo