The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has already started to issue watches for the development of tropical lows for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, that could develop into hurricanes. The NHC issues watches, warnings and forecasts of the track, intensity, and size of tropical storms and hurricanes, both for the tropical Pacific and Atlantic areas.

To meet the hard mission of maintaining a year-round watch on tropical cyclones, the NHC is composed of several units. The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch generates analyses and forecasts over the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The Technology & Science Branch develops and maintains various data and model outputs, new tools and techniques for tropical cyclone prediction. The Storm Surge Unit forecasts the abnormal rise in sea level accompanying tropical cyclones and prepares evacuation procedures of coastal areas. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron mission is to carry on all tropical cyclone reconnaissance, flying into the eye of the storm (the brave Hurricane Hunters).

Eye of Ian (2022) – Credits USAF

The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center foresees an above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year, due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

The 2024’s season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% chance of an above-normal number of storms, a 10% chance of a near-normal number and a 5% chance of a below-normal one. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms. Of those, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5), with a 70% confidence in these ranges.

Alessandro Casarino – Navimeteo